<<back

Much like a movie script, the following fictional scenario will guide participants in the drills and emergency response exercises on November 13, 2008.  More effectively than dry statistics, this describes what a 7.8 magnitude earthquake would be like in Southern California if no additional actions are taken for mitigation or preparedness.

Zero Hour The San Andreas fault suddenly awakens northeast of the Salton Sea and the rupture shoots northwest at 2 miles per second.  The ground on the two sides is offset nearly 44-feet at the boundary between Imperial and Riverside Counties.  As the rupture front travels up the fault, it sends out seismic waves that shake the earth, shifting emergency generators, overturning computers, cracking roads and airport runways, and igniting fires.  The first waves hit the Cajon Pass, severing the I-15, bending rail lines and derailing trains.  Landslides block rails and roads, which have abruptly been cut and separated by 15-feet.  Pipelines snap and electrical transmission lines fail.

1½ Minutes After the Quake  Angelinos, unaware of the devastation to the southeast, are suddenly struck by the seismic waves reaching basin-filled sediments, shaking vigorously after the waves fade elsewhere, causing strong shaking for 55 seconds, much longer than the 7 second shaking during the Northridge earthquake.  The seismic waves reach Palos Verdes 71 seconds after the start of the rupture.  Although many buildings ride the seismic waves like boats in choppy seas, the prolonged strong shaking heavily damages and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick buildings, older concrete commercial buildings, and many wood frame buildings.  Many water and sewer pipes crack.  The building damage causes tens of thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, stranding thousands of people without homes or jobs.  In newer homes, the floors disappear when heaps of unrestrained objects such as TVs, computers and cupboard contents crash to the ground.  But there is no water to clean up.

2 to 5 Minutes after the quake  Seismic waves continue to advance into Oxnard and Santa Barbara.  In Palos Verdes, the shaking fades away, leaving people in shock from the long-lasting event.  Across So. California power is out, stoplights are dark, trains, buses, cars and trucks become immobilized or grid locked.  Some people starts walking home, others sit in dark elevators.  Many mobile homes have collapsed.  Finally the shaking has stopped, but the aftershocks, which run into tens of thousands in the next few months, are just beginning, and some are as severe as the Northridge quake.  The phone system is quickly overwhelmed and unusable as people pick up their phones to call for assistance or to compare experiences with friends.  Though the State highway system has fared well as a result of the seismic retrofitting, many bridges and overpasses within local jurisdictions have collapsed and the freeways and roads have become a massive gridlock from obstructions and accidents.  No hospitals have seen complete collapse, but many must close due to non-structural damage.

30 Minutes After the Quake  First responders have started assessing the damage and opened Emergency Operations Centers, and react to localized incidents; but with the enormity of the damage, they focus on operations that will save the largest number of lives.  Local neighborhoods may be cut off from help and people must mobilize to help their own neighborhoods.  Lacking gloves, crowbars and training, people start clawing through debris.  Ultimately as in the Northridge earthquake, neighbors rescue 95 percent of those who need rescue.  Hundreds of fires are starting in countless ways, but the resources to control them are unavailable.  Calls to 911 don’t get through.  Roads are impassable due to building debris and abandoned cars, and the water system is damaged.  A few dams are leaking.  Family members are isolated from each other and no one can call anyone.  Within a short time, as the assessment of damage spreads through news reports, fire departments in Northern California and Arizona start to mobilize, but mutual aid is hampered because so many roads are impassable.  Ham radio operators start to assist.

Days after the Quake  It will take time to assess the damage, treat the injured, and start recovery operations.  This will be measured in days rather than hours, and many people will have to be self-sufficient for an extended period of time until rescuers can reach them.  Hospitals are dramatically overloaded and shelters have been set up.  Government agencies are starting to bring in water and food.  The National Guard has been mobilized to help law enforcement and looting begins to abate.  Those who have planned for an emergency, taken CERT training, or learned to be amateur radio operators, put this planning into effect with their neighbors, and survive in better condition than those that didn’t.  Within a few days, calm and normality start to return, but can anything be normal again in this sea of destruction?  In the weeks and months to come, the entire economic condition of Southern California will be upended, and the lives of many people will be changed forever.

After reading this scenario, hopefully residents will begin to think about the enormity of an earthquake in our populated area, which is predicted with 99% probability.  Will you DROP, COVER AND HOLD ON, on November 13 at 10 PM?  Please make sure you register at www.ShakeOut.org/register so we’ll know how many people take this seriously.