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ShakeOut Bulletin No. 3 describes the damage resulting from the magnitude 7.8 quake scenario being used for the ShakeOut drill.  This is a hypothetical case using the best judgment of scientists, engineers, seismic, disaster relief, and other agencies about the physical and sociological damage that will be done to Southern California.  In order to better understand what these predictions mean, they can be compared to a real earthquake of similar magnitude.  This information is from Dr. Marshall Lew, an engineering consultant who has traveled to China to study the effects of the recent major quake.

On May 12, 2008, a major quake struck at Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, China.  The terrain is quite similar to that of Southern California, with an area of 30 million people located in the quake zone.  There were many similarities to the quake scenario being used for the Great ShakeOut drill.nbsp; For a dose of reality, here is a comparison of the actual quake in China with what is being used for the drill here.  This information is based on China’s Xinhua News Service as of September 25, and all of the effects of the quake are not yet fully defined.

	Wenchuan Quake 2008	Great ShakeOut Drill 2008
Intensity of quake	7.9	7.8
Death toll	69,227	1,900
Missing	17,923
Injured	374,743	50,000
Hospitalized	89,544	Unknown
People displaced	1,486,407	270,000
Buildings significantly damaged	Unknown	300,000
Aftershocks since May 12	31,222
Temporary houses built for relocated people	677,131

The statistics that immediately jump out of this comparison are the enormous differences between the actual human toll in Wenchuan, and the numbers projected as part of the Great ShakeOut scenario.  Why are casualties expected to be so much lower in Southern California?  First of all, they are only estimates, and when The Big One does strike, these numbers could be significantly higher or lower.  But there are other important reasons.

Ever since the highly destructive 1933 Long Beach quake, scientists and engineers have been studying how a quake affects a community.  Teams have gone to the site of every major earthquake around the world to evaluate the geophysics, structural design, and socioeconomics that affected the population.  From this have come changes in the seismic design standards and building codes for structures and disaster planning guides.  Over the years, many new buildings, highways, and infrastructure projects have been built to new design standards aimed at mitigating damage, and some older structures have been retrofitted.  California communities recognize that they are located in earthquake country and have taken steps to protect our physical safety.

Disaster planning has also taken vast strides.  First responders are trained and frequently drilled in preparation.  Disaster supplies are strategically located throughout the area.  And recently, a great emphasis has been made in training for schools, businesses, and families, so they react in a manner that ensures the highest level of safety during and after a disaster.  Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) of private citizens are being trained throughout the area, radio communication training is available, as are other specialized training programs for those interested.  Communities that are aware of the danger, and are prepared to respond are the ones that will survive with the least damage.  The Great ShakeOut drill is one way you as an individual can contribute to your own safety and that of the overall community.  Register now at www.shakeout.com, prepare for a disaster, and practice your DROP, COVER, and HOLD ON at 10 AM November 13.  Analysis of how well we do as a community during this drill will be factored into future predictions of quake effects, and for further training of disaster response agencies.